Two bad systems are in current use on data.
The first is "reliable source." In this system a report is considered true or factual only if the source is well thought of. This is a sort of authority system. Most professionals working with data collection use this. Who said it? If he is considered reliable or an authority the data is considered true or factual. Sources are graded from A to D. A is highest, D lowest. The frailty of this system is at once apparent. Philby, as a high British intelligence official, was a Russian spy for 30 years. Any data he gave the UK or US was "true" because he was a "reliable source." He had every Western agent who was being sent into communist areas "fingered" and shot. The West became convinced you could not enter or overthrow communist held areas and stopped trying! Philby was the top authority! He fooled CIA and MI-6 for years!
Psychiatrists are "authorities" on the mind. Yet insanity and criminality soar. They are the "reliable sources" on the mind.
Need I say more?
The other system in use is multiple report. If a report is heard from several areas or people it is "true." The Russian KGB has a Department D that forges documents and plants them in several parts of the world. They are then "true."
Propaganda spokesmen located all over the world say the same thing to the press on every major occasion. This becomes "public opinion" in government circles and so is "true" because it is published and comes from so many areas.
Five informants could all have heard the same lie.
Thus we see these two systems of evaluation are both birdbrain.
The two problems that information collection agencies have are
For (1), data evaluation, they use primarily reliable source and multiple report.
EVERY ITEM RECEIVED THAT IS NOT “RELIABLE” OR “MULTIPLE” IS WASTE-BASKETED.
They throw out all outpoints and do not report them!
Their agents are thoroughly trained to do this.
As for (2), areas to investigate, they cannot pinpoint where they should investigate or even what to investigate because they do not use their outpoints.
Using outpoints and data and situation analysis they would know exactly where to look at, at what.
The above data errors are practiced by the largest data collection agencies on the planet-the "professionals." These advise their governments! And are the only advisers of their governments. Thus you can see how dangerous they are to their own countries.
Naturally they have agents who have what is called "flair." These, despite all systems, apply logic. They are so few that Eisenhower's intelligence adviser, General Strong, said in his book that they are too scarce so one is better off with a vast organization.
These agencies are jammed with false reports and false estimations.
An event contemporary with this writing where the US invaded Cambodia shows several data and situation errors. Yet the Viet Cong HQ were using computers. Yet their HQ was wiped out. The US President used CIA data which does not include, by law, data on the US. So the info on which the US President was acting was 50% missing! He was only told about the enemy evidently. When he ordered the invasion the US blew up!
A rather big outpoint (omitted facts) don't you think?
The reason I am using intelligence examples is because these are the biggest human data collection "professionals" in the world.
The collection and use of data to estimate situations to guide national actions and the data collection by a housewife going shopping are based on the same principles.
Mrs. Glutz, told by a "reliable source," Nellie Jones, that things are cheaper at Finkleberries and told by enough TV admen she should buy Kleano tends to do just that. Yet Blastonsteins is really cheaper and by shaving up laundry soap and boiling it she can have ten dollars worth of Kleano for about fifty cents.
Errors in national data collection give us war and high taxes and for Mrs. Glutz gives her a busted budget and stew all week.
So at top and bottom, any operation requires a grasp of data evaluation and situation estimation.
Those who do it will win and those who don't, go up in a cloud of atomic particles or divorce papers!
Logic and illogic are the stuff of survive and succumb.
There are those who wish to survive.